how to predict the future
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1,111,111 TRP = 11,111 USD
1,111,111 TRP = 11,111 USD
1,111,111 TRP = 11,111 USD
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Trend Analysis: Study past and present patterns (e.g., tech, climate) to project trajectories. Tools like time-series forecasting (e.g., ARIMA models) help.
Scenario Planning: Envision multiple futures (best/worst case) based on variables like politics or economics. Shell’s oil crisis predictions used this.
Expert Insight: Delphi methods aggregate expert opinions to forecast trends, e.g., in healthcare or AI.
Data-Driven Models: Machine learning (e.g., LSTM networks) analyzes big data for predictions like stock prices or weather.
Behavioral Signals: Monitor social media, surveys, or market sentiment (e.g., predicting election outcomes via sentiment analysis).
Weak Signals: Spot early anomalies (e.g., niche tech adoption) hinting at larger shifts, like blockchain’s rise.
Philosophy & Probability: Accept uncertainty. Bayesian probability updates predictions as new data emerges.
Limitation: Black swan events (e.g., pandemics) defy models. Balance data with humility.
Example: Climate models combine physics (CO₂ levels) and statistics to project warming.